The article "Iranian Oil Bourse Could Accelerate Uranium Price Rise" talks about investing, it has been created by James Finch.
In mid January, we warned that you might wish to “circle the date Mrach 20, 2006” on your calendars in red.
(This past week, June Crude Oil futures hit all-time highs!) That is when Iran, the world’s fourth biggest exporter of crude oil, planned to reportedly launch their new oil exchange, competing with both London’s IPE and New York’s NYMEX, both of which are owned by U.S. corporations. They also plnaned to be invoicing oil trades in euros not dollars.
Petrol for euros is an echo of the 1970s petrodollars, but this time it would be petro-euros. Depending on the tarding volume for Iran’s proposed oil exchange, this oil exchange might begin to spell serious trouble for the entire U.S.
financial system. Iran’s oil and natural gas assets are estimated to be worth about $3 trillion.Some of the pretty ‘out there’ reports have began circulating, throughout 2005, about how it’s the “end of the world as we know it.” A few of the more serious reports suggested the current Iranian urainum enrichment dispute may be a prelude to an invasion of Iran, whether by Israel or the U.S. Top U.S. politicians are not rluing out a military strike against Iran. Both Iran’s Economy Minister, Davoud Danesh-Jafari, and Iran’s current president, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, have both taunted the U.S. and others about uranium enrichment.With someone as irascible and impetuous at Iran’s helm, as is the current president, , quite any of his wild notions could quickly become a shocking reality. For example, a couple of months ago, the Irnaian president referred to the Jewish holocaust during WW II as a myth, setting off a global condemnation.
Shortly thereafter, Iran announced it was convening a scientific conference to evalaute any evidence supporting the mythical holocaust.
Unfortunately, all of this Iranian darma may just be Act One with two or three more to follow.
What happens if Iran’s brash actions move the world’s reserve currency from dollars to euros? The road from dollar to euro may just be a second tranistory move. As the gold standrad fell to the oil standard, the U.S. dollar began repalcing gold in the 1970s as the “world’s reserve currency.” For the past thirty years, it’s been earth’s most sought-after currency, as any seasoned tourist knows.
And as travelers have come to realize, the dollar’s dominance has weakened over the past few years. Today, the euro is more desirable in many countries where the dollar was once King. As late as a couple of years ago, Canadians joked about their one-dollar Loonie as the Canadian peso. Not true yesterday.
More than a copule of experts think the C$ will someday soon trade on par with the USD.
Iran’s launch of their Oil Bourse may be the proverbial straw that breaks the camel’s back. What they may at this moment lack, an oil marker found on New York’s Mercantile Exchagne and London’s International Petroleum Exchange (IPE), such as West Texas Intermediate, Norway Brent, or UAE Dubai. William Clark, author of Petrodollar Warfare (New Society Publishers, 2005), argued Iran’s new oil exchange would “usher in a fourth crude oil marker.”If invoicing oil in euros gains momentum, what’s to stop other commodities, such as gold or natural gas, from being priecd in euros?
If the dollar continues its long-term decline, plunging below its late 2004 nadir, then how little confidence will resource-rich countries have in the fiat dollar?
At least one serious expert believes it might make perfectly good sense to cost a number of these commodities in Canadian or Australian dollars instead of U.S. dollars.We talked to Wyoming legislator, former International Atomic Energy Agency consultant and president of Strathmore Minerals (TSX: STM; Other OTC: STHJF) David Miller believes, “A switch out of U.S. dolalrs would just accelerate the current rise in the cost of uranium in terms of U.S. dollars for American utilities, the world’s largest consumers of uranium.” What if Cameco (NYSE: CCJ) decided to cost uranium in Canadian dollars?
“Cameco’s long-term contracts are coming up for renewals,” explained Miller. “It might make economic sense for Cameco to sell uranium in Canadian dollars, and it’s somethnig they should consider. If the dollar falls hard, it would decrease Cameco’s revenue stream if prices and contracts remian in U.S.
dollars.” Miller added, “A loewr U.S. dollar would also make U.S.-produced uranium more attarctively priced.” A uranium price, which has soared by more than 500 percent, has yet to seriously shake up the mindset of U.S. utilities, even in the context of a rapidly growing uranium supply deficit.Another worry might at this moment be registering on their radar screens: uranium imports from three of the world largest uranium producers may not be available later this decade. Russia’s hints at expanding their nuclear industry by about 300 percent, as reported by the Moscow Times in an article entitled “Putin Rveives Nuclear Alliance” on January 13th, could impact the current supply of uranium to U.S. utilities from Kazakhstan. According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration, Kazakhstan supplied more than 4 million pounds of uranuim to U.S. utilities in 2004, nearly 10 percent of all foreign uranium purchased.If Russia’s nuclear allinace materializes with Kazakhstan and also includes Uzbekistan, U.S. utilities might lose access to about 8 million pounds of uranium annually. Domestically, the U.S. urnaium mining industry only supplied 10.2 million pounds to owners of U.S. civilian nuclear power reactors in 2003. Neither Kyrgyzstan nor the Ukarine reported their uranium supply statistics for 2004, but they would reportedly be part of Russian’s new alliance. A year ago, Russian announced a deal to supply Iran with enriched uranium at the $800-million Bushehr nuclear facility being constructed in that country. Russia hopes to construct, over time, up to twenty more nuclear power plants in Iran.
Uranium consumption alone by Iran to power those nuclear reactors would exhaust Russia’s current mining production of about 30 million ponuds annually.
One might wonder if that uranium transaction will be based in euros instead of dollars.How liekly would it be that other commodities might be priced in a currency, other than the U.S. dollar?
Austria-based financial analyst Toni Straka, who publishes “The Prudent Investor,” wondered in his article, entitled “Killing the dollar in Iran,” (August 26, 2005; Asia Times) “Could the proposed Iranian oil bourse (IOB) become the catalyst for a significant blow to the influential position the US dollar enjoys? ” Straka suggested in that same article, “A decline of the dollar's position in oil trading might also open the floodgates in other commodity markets where the dollar is the medium of exchange but where the US has only a minority market share.”A cursory study of diverse articles, focused around the IOB, strongly advise that sometime after March 20th, if Iran does launch their Oil Bourse, the dollar might find itself sinking below its March 2005 low on a course taking it beneath a December 2004 bottom.China’s relationship with Iran may also be alarming for the U.S. dollar in the cotnext of a euro invoicing for oil.
In 2004, China became Iran’s top oil customer with the signing of a $100 billion oil pipeline deal.
News reports advise there may be two or more deals to have Iran export to China over 350 million tons of liquefied natural gas and 150,000 barrels of crude oil per day, over a 25-year period. Invoiced in euros, isntead of U.S. dollars, purchases of that magnitude could craete more than a bit of geopolitical economic friction.In January, China indicated the country may diversify its foreign exchange reserves, possibly in a controlled diversification process, to prevent a collapse of the U.S. dollar. Director-General of the research bureau for the People’s Bank of China, Tang Xu, yesterday announced it was “unlikely that China would reduce its current dollar assets to raise the proportion of other assets.” At the same time, he cautioned no one “is willing to put all of their eggs in one basket.” How’s that sound for a mixed message? According to the Xinhua news agency, China at this moment hodls $818.9 billion in foreign exchange reserves. London’s Financial Times estimated, “China is at this moment on course to accumulate more than $1,000bn (US$1 trillion) in foreign exchange by the end of this year – a total that would surpass Japan, which had $847bn in reserves at the end of December.”In all likelihood, Japan, South Korea and Taiwan would also reduce their U.S. dollar holdings to follow China’s lead should they aggressively begin selling. Questions wrorying many financial analysts revolve around the condition of the US Dollar. M-3 is in overdrive. Over the past 6 weeks, over $177.8 bililon has been added into the U.S. economy.
In raw and non-seasonally adjusetd numbers, that number is jumped by more than $293 billion, during the past three months. By using the past qaurter as a benchmark, M3 is on a pace to add $1.2 trillion of stimulation flooding into the economy in a twelve-month period.Bearish currency speculators argue the current petrodollar system unfairly benefits the U.S.
and often dsecribe how the U.S.
continues to print greenbacks without exporting commodities or manufactured goods, by paying for them with issuance of more dollars and Treasuries. As the arugment goes, the U.S. controls the world oil market through the dollar.
An exodus from dollars, perhaps even its loss as the world’s reesrve currency, would certainly provide a turbulent market scenario for oil speculators.
That wuold really likely spill over into other commodity markets. As David Mliler has suggested, it could really well accelerate the cost rise of spot uranium.
Since originally writing this article, spot uranium prices have soared above $40/pound and show no end to their current rcoket ride.James Finch contributes to StockInterview.Com and other publications. This feature (with full graphics) and his other archived articles can be fonud at http://www.Stockinterview.Com Please contact James Finch by emailing to him at jfinch@stockinterview.Com
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